Sustained buoyancy in home purchasing but concern about upward trend in prices

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n this end-of-year and start-of year, the Spanish are still optimistic about buying property, although they show concern about the sustained upward trend in prices, as revealed by the latest Solvia’s Property Confidence Index (ICIS). In this respect, the survey output is fully consistent with Solvia’s view that the market with more potential of growth is transactions rather than prices, especially in those regions where population growth, disposable income and unemployment rates are below the national average.

The ICIS is Solvia’s indicator that measures the Spaniards’ views and expectations when buying property. Its latest survey from the end of November reveals that the confidence of the Spanish consumer continues being favourable thanks to the improved perception of the situation over a two-year period and stands at 109 points out of 200. This indicator is in line with the one registered in April (108 points) and slightly below the one registered one year ago, when the ICIS reached a peak (116 points), up from 112 points in the two previous surveys.

In view of this, it is safe to say that producing and marketing homes within demand-based pricing will continue to be the overriding challenge in the property sector.

In Catalonia, the Confidence Index remains at 101 points, although the trend over the next two years positions it at 113, below the Spanish average, but on a favourable ground

MODERATE BUOYANCY BUT THE TIME IS STILL GOOD FOR PURCHASING

Out of the two indicators that make up the index, the one that reflects whether the current situation is favourable for buying property slows down, close to the neutral position of 100 points, mainly because of the feeling that prices continue escalating. Besides, there is a feeling that labour and savings conditions are not aligned with these price hikes (in fact, the main factor behind moderation of this indicator), although, compared to April 2018, there is an upgraded view of this personal situation.

Nevertheless, while there is moderation in the indicator of the current situation, that of expectations, which measures the trend over a two-year period, increases by five points from April, and reaches up to 118 points over 100.

This improved optimistic signs for the future are driven by the gradually increasing belief that prices will end up restraining or moderating their upward trend. In the personal sphere, citizens envisage better labour and savings conditions, as well as better prospects for credit access, which contributes to improved expectations.

The confidence level of the Spanish citizens stands above 100 points in all Spanish regions. In Catalonia, the Confidence Index remains at 101 points, although the trend over the next two years positions it at 113, below the Spanish average, but on a favourable ground.

The regions with the highest confidence index in Spain are Andalucía and the Canary Islands, with an indicator of 114 points. Also, in the northern region of Spain, the ICIS stands above the average, with 111 points.

UPWARD TREND IN RENTAL PRICES

In the context of rental market, the overriding trend continues to be the rising evolution of prices, despite falling short of the results of the April 2018 survey.

The relevant fact is that the percentage of respondents in Madrid who feel that rental prices will continue rising, despite being a majority, slows down with respect to the previous survey.

ICIS, A BENCHMARK INDICATOR ANALYSING SINCE 2016 THE CONSUMERS’ CONFIDENCE INDEX ON THE PROPERTY MARKET

The Property Confidence Index (ICIS) is an indicator issued by Solvia in tandem with the Institute of Research Kantar TNS since November 2016. The ICIS measures the perception of the Spanish population as regards the property purchase market within a range between 0 and 200 points, where 100 stands as the neutral position, between 0-100 gathers a negative opinion, and between 100-200 gathers a favourable opinion.

The ICIS is made up of two indicators that evaluate both the general and the personal outlook with respect to property purchase, together with an indicator of the current situation and an indicator of expectations for the next two years. The Confidence Index is calculated as the arithmetic mean of each variable (i.e. index of current situation + 2-year indicator /2).

Solvia has been developing this index since November 2016, with two yearly batches, in November and April, which allows comparing data over a six-month period.

This index has been elaborated with a sampling of 1,204 surveys conducted between 15 and 19 October 2018 with subjects between 25 and 60 years old. The subjects have their residence in Spain, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands. The sampling is representative of sex, age, environment and socioeconomic index at overall level, and at area level by sex, age, autonomous community and environment. The error rate of the overall level is +/-2.87% for a reliability level of 95.5%.

ABOUT SOLVIA

Solvia is a leading firm in property services in Spain, with a securities portfolio of 141,000 assets under management, adding up to a value of over 30,000 million euros. It is an industrial company, with a wide-ranging portfolio of clients and a workforce of nearly 800 employees, that invests and does continuous research, applies innovation to each and every business segment of its concern, and has been developing its own technology for years.

Currently, Solvia is not only a servicer, but also a property development company with a presence in the retail and investment market and offers services to private individuals, businesses and investors. Solvia has a renowned capacity for management in all types of property assets, both residential and tertiary and singular.

The company is known for its consulting activity and is present in all market segments. Its services range from marketing property for purchasing, selling or rental to consultancy and investor valuation, through property management or credit portfolio.

Besides, Solvia has a widespread capillarity thanks to its network of Solvia Stores, with as many as 60 storefront offices throughout Spain, from which it provides services to its clientele with comprehensive property solutions with professional and customized assistance.

Solvia has been developing its own technology for years and, recently, in its pursuit to contribute to ensuring property market transparency, has launched Solvia Location Intelligence, a geolocalization tool that offers residential market data at the level of census, and Solvia Price Index, a valuation tool that establishes the price of property supported by big data and machine learning. Both of them are available, free of charge in Solvia’s website and supply professional information to help taking the best decision for purchasing, selling or renting property.